Larry Friese (AISC founder and principal) and Armament Research Services recently published a paper on the emerging threat from commercial, consumer, and prosumer small UAVs by non-state actors.
“The past decade has witnessed an explosion in the popularity, availability, variety, and capability of small, remotely-piloted aerial vehicles designed and produced for the commercial market. A corresponding increase in the use or attempted use of such systems by non-state actors and armed groups has been documented, with such systems being employed to support operations in ongoing conflicts, criminal activity, and terrorist attacks. The use of these technologies can provide non-state actors with advanced capabilities which offer tactical flexibility without the requirement for a complex support network, making them ideal force enablers for asymmetric and ‘hybrid’ conflicts. Non-state armed groups have employed commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology since the early 1990s. Sometimes known as ‘drones’, UAV technology has advanced rapidly in the commercial sector in recent years. There has been a notable increase in the frequency and sophistication of the employment of these technologies, especially within asymmetric conflicts. Recent hostilities in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Ukraine have brought increased media attention to the use of UAVs by non-state actors, however assessments of the operational history of COTS small UAVs in conflicts zones remain comparatively limited. In most cases, COTS small UAVs have been used by non-state actors to support intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) missions and information operations. This is partially due to a lack of strong communications and intelligence infrastructure amongst many armed groups, with UAVs offering a comparatively accessible and cost-effective alternative to traditional military ISTAR platforms and systems1 . With military UAVs typically unavailable to all but the largest non-state actors who enjoy the support of benefactor states, COTS small UAVs offer attractive alternative. In some respects, similar functionality can be achieved through the use of commercial systems, especially in light of the more localised nature of conflicts fought by many non-state armed groups. Cheap, highly portable systems which can offer a distinct tactical advantage are ideally suited for modern asymmetric warfare as practiced by many non-state actors. In order for policymakers and other key stakeholders to correctly identify and address potential threats to security posed by this growing phenomenon, a basic technical literacy must first be made available. This report provides the reader with a technical overview of small UAV systems, their technologies, capabilities and applications, as well as addressing broad market trends and horizon developments within the COTS small UAV sector. This report further provides an indicative use history of UAV systems in service with non-state armed groups and an assessment of operation trends associated with this use and proliferation, followed by an examination of current and proposed regulatory controls and counter-measures.”
Download the full report here.