British media is reporting that Paris and Brussels attack leader, Salah Abdeslam, had a laptop containing planning information for future attacks. While the details are unknown, the article mentions the use of suicide bombers, guns, and drones carrying chemical weapons as potential attack vectors.
It should not come as a surprise to see the ISIS-backed cell considering small UAS for their attacks. Like many states, ISIS has recognized the utility of small UAS on the battlefield. It seems a natural extension for them to take that technology and use it in their terrorist operations. Now, getting from plans on a laptop to a successful drone attack is a big step, but they are highly motivated and well positioned to get the needed expertise. Whether inspired or directly backed by ISIS, we should expect to see more terrorists employ this type of attack.
The chemical weapons aspect is very revealing of the Islamic State’s true threat. Many people will scoff at the effectiveness of a small UAS to deliver a chemical weapon payload. But, you have to remember that effectiveness is a relative term. Terrorists have a much lower bar to meet because their goal is to create fear. Chemical weapons have a strong psychological effect on people and just the suggestion they will be or have been used in an attack changes the dynamics of the event tremendously. Combine this new revelation with their prior use of chemical weapons on the battlefield, it becomes clear that they will go to any extreme in pursuit of their objectives.
Soft targets, like any open air event, are fair game and we are far from being able to provide an adequate defense.